Alzheimer’s Looms As Continuing—And Growing—Cape Cod Problem

By Alisa Galazzi,
 Executive Director, Alzheimer’s Services of Cape Cod & the Islands

• It is the nature of the disease.
• Plus it is a factor of a predicted growth of the Cape’s already large graying and white-haired population.

In a word—barring a medical breakthrough, of course—a new study warns there’s little doubt Alzheimer’s disease is and will continue to be an increasingly major problem on Cape Cod.

According to the latest findings on the presence of the disease from the national Alzheimer’s Association, 13 percent of all Americans 65 and older (that’s just over one in eight) are afflicted with this debilitating disease. Broken down, it’s 2 percent of those between 65 and 74, 19 percent between 75 and 84, and, among those 85 or older, a stunning 42 percent suffer from Alzheimer’s.

To predict the future, as it affects the Cape with its large elderly population, Alzheimer’s Services of Cape Cod & the Islands (ASCCI) recently commissioned researchers of the Senior Mobility Initiative on Cape Cod (SMICC), an independent, grassroots coalition, to estimate the number of Cape and Islands residents age 65 and over likely to be afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease in the future.

We feel these estimates should greatly enhance our ability as a community to plan and develop services for our respective clients.
SMICC researchers began by looking at how the Cape Cod senior/elder population has changed over the past 20 years. They then utilized projections from the census bureau and other organizations to anticipate where we’d be over the next two decades.

Based on the 2000 census, 3 percent of Barnstable County’s total population fell in the over-65 Alzheimer’s risk category. This holds true for the 2005 “mini-census.” There is a small rise of a tenth of a point in the 2010 projection, but then a stunning one-third spike to 4 percent by 2020.

During this latter decade, the Cape’s population is projected to have risen by roughly 30 percent to almost 300,000. Obviously, many of these newcomers are of retirement age to create a probable Alzheimer’s cohort of nearly 12,000. That is almost double current estimates.

At the same time, Dukes County (Martha’s Vineyard) projects an increase from 1.9 to 2.8 percent of the Alzheimer’s-prone cohort over that 20-year period with Nantucket County’s 65-plus population inching up from 1.4 to 1.8 percent.

(For contrast, the study projects Boston and Worcester both holding virtually steady at less than 2 percent.)

SMICC characterizes its estimates as “very conservative” and says they reflect “the extraordinary population of older people in our community (and) indicates this prevalence will continue into the future.”

In combination with the prevalence data and today’s complex business environment, Alzheimer’s Services has undertaken a strategic planning process and added staff to realign its programs and services in a meaningful way that that will not only address the challenges of today but also help to prepare our region for the significant increase in people with dementia.

(Alzheimer’s Services of Cape Cod and the Islands started as an independent non-profit agency in 1984 providing services, education, and support to individuals on Cape Cod and the Islands. For further information or to become involved ASCCI’s programs contact 508-775-5656 or www.alzcapecod.org.)